Top Pollster Gives Democrats Promising Odds; Don't Rule Out Trump

Since 2016, polling has become somewhat of a controversial topic in the world of politics. Some Democrats have their concerns because of the pure shock of Donald Trump's victory in 2016, while some Republicans distrust polls because they have recently shown President Trump down considerable margins in key states. Despite this, public opinion institutes and pollsters have continued to churn out what they believe to be reputable data points about many campaigns all over the country. One of these pollsters, Dr. Christopher Borick, joined the Millennial Politics Podcast this week to discuss his work, how polls have improved over the past few years, and to look toward next week's elections. Dr. Borick is a Professor of Political Science and the Director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. His polls, only one of six to receive an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight, are widely regarded as some of the best in the country. Some of the things that he thinks contribute to this prestige are their level of transparency and their sampling and interview methods. Another aspect that Muhlenberg has recently included is weighting by educational attainment, which Dr. Borick says the absence of may have led to some of the polling errors we saw in 2016 in states like Wisconsin. In talking about the current state of the 2020 race, the professor said that as the polls currently stand, an error large enough to lead to a President Trump victory is a low-probability event but is certainly not impossible. However, he also cautioned that a polling error wouldn't necessarily be biased towards the Democrats as it was in 2016 and that in 2012, polls actually underestimated President Obama's performance. Dr. Borick went into detail about modeling and gave us some insight into what he thinks the probabilities of certain outcomes are for next week. In that conversation, he shared how factors like voter suppression, voter turnout, and mail-in voting affect the modeling and polling industry and what challenges those fields face in an unprecedented election cycle like 2020. If you liked this episode, be sure to like and subscribe to our podcast, rate us five-stars, and leave a review. It's one of the best ways for new listeners to find us. Stay tuned for our next episode.

00:34:08

Jamaal Bowman Wants You To Get Active & Stay Active

Across the country, there has been a wave of progressive victories in Democratic primaries over the past few years. In 2018, we saw Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ayanna Pressley, and a number of New York State Senate seats flip from the hands of incumbent Democrats to young, bold progressive voices fighting for a new status quo. This trend has continued in 2020 with Cori Bush, Marie Newman, and many others, including a man from the Bronx, NY.  On June 23, Jamaal Bowman unseated a powerful sitting representative: Eliot Engel has been in Congress for 31 years and is the current Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Bowman won the primary by a resounding margin, beating Rep. Engel by nearly 15 percentage points and over 13,000 votes. It was a huge shock for many in the political world: how could an influential incumbent once again vastly underestimate their primary challenger? Bowman's campaign, however, knew that anything was possible with enough hard work and community engagement. A former middle school principal and founder of the Cornerstone Academy for Social Action in the Bronx, Bowman's background is in education. He says that his motivation for running for Congress came mainly from seeing firsthand how poorly those children were treated and how little resources they had available to them in order to live successful lives. There's a direct connection between those horrible outcomes [youth deaths and suicides] and the trauma our kids and families deal with and poverty and bad policy that often comes from Washington. Bowman also speaks about NY's 16th Congressional District, which is the area he will be representing come January 2021. He talks about the vast wealth inequality that exists both in America as a whole but also specifically in his district: the 16th consists of very poor areas in the Bronx but also extremely affluent Westchester suburbs. When it comes to squaring his support of Joe Biden's presidential campaign and his own progressive values and beliefs, Bowman believes it isn't an either-or situation. He fights for things like Medicare for All and a Green New Deal because his constituents voted for him. After Trump has been defeated, Bowman says, then the left can begin working with Biden to further progressive policy. For now, he and his team are focused on helping with the Census count in the Bronx and ousting the GOP incumbent in November.

00:19:49

Ethan Wolf Is Mobilizing Jewish Voters to Elect Joe Biden

As just a junior in college, he has already chaired a political organizing group and launched his own PAC. He also wants to help elect progressives across the country, specifically through mobilizing youth voters through a Jewish lens. Ethan Wolf is passionate about Democratic politics and his Jewish identity and uses both of those to drive and influence his work. A former chair of the organizing body Jews 4 Joe, Ethan now leads the Jewish Unity PAC, which aims to turn out young voters in key swing states with digital ads, mailers, and more. He joins Nathan and Sam on the Millennial Politics Podcast this week to discuss his work and also touched on the recent rise of anti-Semitism in American politics. Although he acknowledges the presence of anti-Semitism among some on the left, Ethan thinks the most important thing to do right now is to unite against Donald Trump and the Republican Party. After that task is complete, he says, we can focus on working with, building with, and educating members of the Democratic party about what anti-Semitism looks like, and what allyship for American Jews can mean. We can be critical of the State of Israel just as we would be of any other nation... but the important thing is that we don't delegitimize, we don't demonize, and we don't deny Israel's right to exist. Ethan also discusses why he thinks so many Jewish voters are drawn to the Democratic Party and its values, talking about how Democrats are the ones most interested in leaving a better world for the next generation with their advocacy on issues like climate change and gun control. He also said that because the Jewish community has seen so much discrimination in its history, most Jews share the pain of those marginalized and gravitate towards groups that want to make a change for the better.

00:30:28

Jami Hodge & The Vera Institute are Reshaping Prosecution

While not often understood by most Americans, prosecutors at the local, state, and federal level have immense power in our judicial system. Effectively, they can choose to pursue the maximum sentence against an alleged criminal (within the legal guidelines), or, they can choose to be lenient and opt for the minimum. The decisions made at the prosecutorial level can change someone's life forever. In practice, it's quite literally the difference between an addict being sent to rehab, or being convicted of a felony, sent to prison, and sentences to an endless cycle of recidivism through the prison system; the difference between a second chance, or a life sentence. There is tremendous leeway in how criminal cases can proceed, and ultimately, it's up to the prosector to decide.  Jami Hodge, Director of Vera Institute for Justice's Reshaping Prosecution program, joined the Millennial Politics Podcast to dig deeper into their work of ending mass incarceration through progressive prosecution methods. Hodge, with a JD from Duke University and having served as a former Assistant US Attorney, Senior Advisor in Obama's Department of Justice, and Advisor on Criminal Justice and Legal Policy for Vice President Biden, brings with her a wealth of knowledge and experience. As the Director of the Prosecution Reform Program, Jami and her team work with elected prosecutors to end mass incarceration, address racial disparities, and to make their offices more accountable to the communities they serve.  Listen to our conversation, and please feel free to continue the conversation with us on Twitter @MillenPolitics.

00:34:14

David Litt, Former Obama Speechwriter, Has A Plan To Fix Our Democracy

From entering the White House as a speechwriter at age 24 to writing most of President Obama's White House Correspondents Dinner jokes for four years, David Litt got into politics at a young age and quickly rose to the top of his profession. He joined the Millennial Politics Podcast this week to discuss his career in the White House, the current troubles facing our nation, and his new book, Democracy in One Book Or Less: How It Works, Why It Doesn't, and Why Fixing It Is Easier Than You Think. Litt talks about his first book, a memoir recapping his time in the White House, and how his experience is different from others who have written similar books because of how young he was at the time. In discussing his newer research and writing, he diagnoses some major problems facing American democracy and how they are often extremely intertwined. With those connected issues, Litt says, also come connected solutions. He weaves in a fun story about the connection between Mitch McConnell and a fraternity house in Northern Kentucky. Litt also speaks about how Democrats should govern if they do win back the Senate and the Presidency, including whether they should look to abolish the filibuster and how they use their legislative power. I think that Democrats ought to be more comfortable using the tools available to them... in order to not just win elections but in order to make the playing field fairer. Lastly, the Litt discusses some of the speeches he wrote for President Obama and the type of work he did while working in the administration. He also gives us a look into what it was like working in the White House, including an embarrassing story regarding an experience he had on Air Force One. If you liked this episode, be sure to like and subscribe to our podcast, rate us five-stars, and leave a review. It's one of the best ways for new listeners to find us. Stay tuned for our next episode. If you'd like to continue the conversation, David Litt can be found on Twitter @DavidLitt, Nathan can be found @NathanHRubin, and Sam can be found at @JeskeSam.

00:29:36

Swing Left Launches Blueprint, New Political Giving Tool

Swing Left was founded in January 2017 as a reaction to Donald Trump's ascension to the presidency. Since then, the progressive political group has grown exponentially. With chapters across the nation and representatives on college campuses, along with a massive organizing infrastructure, they're poised to make an enormous difference in elections taking place this November. Steve Pierson and Mariah Craven joined the Millennial Politics Podcast to discuss the work they do on Swing Left's podcast, "How We Win," and the organization's new fundraising tool called "Blueprint." Branded as an investment portfolio for activism and giving, Blueprint empowers volunteers and donors to more effectively donate, track progress, and realize the difference that their contributions are making. Blueprint focuses on "Super States," which are states that Swing Left identifies as the key battleground states of the election. Steve and Mariah also talked about their personal journeys of getting involved with politics and Swing Left, and how they came to co-host the "How We Win" podcast. The pod's purpose is to "provide inspiration and tools and calls to action" to their listeners so that they can get involved and make a difference. They have featured prominent guests, like Democratic pollster Cornel Belcher, founder of Mom's Demand Action Shannon Watts, Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler, and MP's own Nathan Rubin. If you'd like to continue the conversation, Nathan can be found on Twitter @NathanHRubin, Sam can be found @JeskeSam, Steve can be found @BluesBoySteve, and Mariah can be found @Mariah_Craven.

00:29:56

Judge Lina Hidalgo: Steady Leadership Through Tumultuous Times

Born in Colombia during the drug war, Lina Hidalgo is no stranger to adversity and change. After moving to Peru and then Mexico to escape the traffickers and gangs, her family finally emigrated to the United States. Looking back, she marvels at the disparity between the lack of government action in Colombia, Peru, or Mexico compared with the flourishing public school system in Texas she was able to attend; with strong STEM classes, robust arts programming, and ample resources. She realized that in the United States, government was able to make a difference, and make a difference for the better. This put her on a journey towards helping others and believing in the power of good government.  Hidalgo began her career working outside the political system as an activist for free expression in Southeast Asia, working closely with reporters and bloggers who would stand up to authoritarian governments. Often times, putting themselves and their families in harms way to speak the truth.  Fast-forward to 2016, Lina Hidalgo, now armed with a master's degree and a J.D., watched as Donald Trump made a far-fetched run for the Presidency (and won). This began the wheels turning for her, like so many others, wondering if he can do it, surely she can too.  Deciding to run for County Judge in 2018 put her on a collision course with history; no woman (and no Latina) had ever won the seat of Harris County Judge before. And despite the misnomer in its title, County Judge isn't a judicial position, it's an Executive Leadership one. Harris County is the 3rd largest County in America, behind only Los Angeles and Cook County in Illinois. As a 27 year old candidate, Lina Hidalgo was able to build a robust coalition of activists, organizers, and volunteers to get her vision out to the community, and she won in a stunning upset to become the Executive in charge of dozens of cities totaling more than 3 million people, along with a sprawling $5 billion budget.  Since she made the jump into politics as a candidate, and now as an elected official, Judge Lina Hidalgo has had to lead her community through two "500 Year" floods, Hurricane Harvey's disastrous wake, three chemical plant fires, and now the COVID19 pandemic.  Listen to our interview below with Judge Hidalgo as we dig deeper into her background, her historic campaign, her leadership style and steady hand at the wheel of a rocky boat, as well as her most recent fight to keep her community safe from COVID19.

00:21:14

UNICEF USA Is Hard At Work Saving Lives During COVID

From combating child hunger to reducing human trafficking, or fighting Ebola in West Africa and striving to eradicate AIDS by 2030, UNICEF USA is hard at work making a difference where it matters. UNICEF was founded in 1946, post WWII, to help children affected by the war, and UNICEF USA supports UNICEF's work through fundraising, advocacy, and education in the United States. Graded by Charity Navigator in 2019, UNICEF USA received exceptional scores in transparency, accountability, and administration, making them one of the top rated charities in the world. UNICEF prides themselves on being largest agency working to improve the lives of children in difficult circumstances and we were fortunate to have Michael Nyenhuis, UNICEF USA's President & CEO, join us on the podcast this week. On the podcast, they discussed UNICEF USA's work pre-COVID, how it has shifted in response to the pandemic and the accompanying economic recession, UNICEF USA's work fighting for racial justice, and their internal diversity policies at the organization. Nyenhuis shared that he started his career as a journalist covering the HIV pandemic in Honduras during the 1990's, and his experience following that outbreak inspired him to transition into the non-profit field. Nyenhuis also went into deep detail on UNICEF USA's work both on the global and the local scales as they ramped up to mitigate the fallout from COVID19. In the immediate days following the outbreak, UNICEF USA focused on delivering Personal Protective Equipment to 40,000,000 healthcare workers, but they never lost sight of their mission to help children. Building platforms they call the Learning Passport and Kid Power, they made sure they were able to help continue the education of students who may be out of school, making these platforms available to both and parents students alike. With every $.89 per $1.00 raised going to their work of helping kids, their ability to affect change at scale is unrivaled.

00:23:22

Mondaire Jones is a Rising Star in NY-17's Democratic Primary

Mondaire Jones would be the first black and openly gay member of Congress in United States history. He's also a bonafide progressive, supporting policies like Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and tuition-free public college. Mondaire Jones, educated at Stanford University, graduated from Harvard Law School, served in the Obama Department of Justice, and now candidate for the open House seat in New York's 17th congressional district, is more than just a resume. Endorsed by AOC and Bernie Sanders, Jones joined Nathan and Sam on the Millennial Politics Podcast this week to discuss his upbringing and the things that distinguish him from other candidates in the primary race. Jones also tied his background to the policies he supports, touching on the need for tuition free college, a federal $15 minimum wage, and universal childcare, to name a few. "Unlike the people we're used to seeing in our politics, I don't come from money or a political family. I grew up in Section 8 Housing and on food stamps, and I was raised by a young single mom." Additionally, he spoke at length about America's criminal justice system and how it needs to be radically reimagined. Jones also said that we must have a broader conception of systemic racism, including how things like public education and healthcare are structured in a way that disproportionately hurt African-Americans. But he couldn't leave it all to doom and gloom; he ended on a positive note, arguing that the recent protests give him hope because of how passionate young people are about racial injustice and that this really feels like a true moment for change.

00:28:56

NY State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi on Police Brutality, Protests & Reform

After a long conversation about systemic racism, police brutality, the effects of COVID-19 in her district, and a failure of leadership in this time of crisis, NY State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi retracted her prior endorsement of incumbent Rep. Eliot Engel. While she had previously publicly declared that, "2020 was not the time to primary incumbent Democrats", the events of the last few months have changed her perspective. The senator spoke passionately about the lack of leadership from many officials for the underprivileged and hard-hit communities that they are elected to serve, and critiqued misleading statements and half-hearted support from those same electeds throughout COVID, and now into the protests against police brutality.  "We have an obligation to fight like hell to ensure our communities are represented by someone who wants to be there. We need someone who is focused on the future. So, my opinion is that my full support behind [Rep. Eliot] Engel just is not there right now. I am still making a decision about what to do formally, but I cannot stand behind somebody who refuses to stand for a district that is in great need during this transformational moment of change." Senator Biaggi didn't just take shots at other elected officials, though. She came prepared with ample policy proposals on how to best reform the NYPD, mitigate systemic racism, and eliminate police brutality. Biaggi spoke in-depth on reforms like reducing the budget of the NYPD, repealing "50-a" to increase transparency around police personnel records, mandating racial bias training for public officials and including age appropriate unconscious bias classes in both public and private schools for children.

00:43:22